From our perspective, the current structure in MP Materials is approaching an important technical decision point.

After a prolonged period of consolidation within a broader range, price is now attempting to stabilise around the 200-day moving average, which often acts as a key reference level for longer-term direction.

Structure Overview

Looking at the chart, we can see that:

• Price has been trading within a broad structure, with multiple reactions around key Fibonacci levels
• The 200-day moving average (around 61.20) is currently being tested
• Shorter-term moving averages (20 and 50 DMA) are beginning to stabilise and flatten

This type of behaviour often signals a transition phase rather than a confirmed trend.

What We Are Watching

For us, confirmation matters more than anticipation.

The key condition we are monitoring is:

• Two consecutive daily candle closes above the 200-day moving average

If this happens, it suggests that:

• Buyers are able to hold price above a long-term reference level
• The recent consolidation may shift into a more sustained upside structure
• Momentum is beginning to align across timeframes

Without this confirmation, the move remains incomplete.

Supporting Signals

Alongside the 200-day moving average, we are also observing:

• SMIIO (Momentum)
  Momentum is starting to turn higher, which may indicate early strength building. However, we prefer to see continuation rather than a single shift.
• Volume Behaviour
  Any breakout or continuation ideally comes with increasing participation. Low volume moves tend to lack sustainability.
• Channel Structure
  Price is still respecting a broader structure. Holding above key levels within this structure supports the case for a gradual shift higher.
• Moving Average Alignment
  A stronger confirmation would come from:
  • Price holding above the 200 DMA
  • 20 DMA crossing above the 50 DMA
  • Both beginning to slope upward

Key Takeaway

At this stage, the market is not yet confirmed as bullish, but it is clearly approaching a level where that transition could begin.

We are not trying to predict the move —
we are waiting for the market to confirm it.

If price can establish itself above the 200-day moving average with follow-through, the structure becomes more constructive.

If not, the range may continue, and patience remains key.

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Disclaimer

This content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always ensure proper risk management and conduct your own research.