We are currently analysing EURUSD through a structured price action and intermarket lens, focusing on confirmation rather than anticipation.
1. Momentum & Structure Alignment
From a momentum perspective, the SMIIO indicator is showing signs of recovery, indicating that downside pressure is gradually fading.
At the same time, price action has started to shift:
- A Higher Low formed at 1.1460 (31 March 2026)
- This suggests early signs of a developing bullish structure
As we know, the transition from lower lows to higher lows is often the first step in a potential trend reversal.
2. Moving Average Confirmation
We are also observing key moving average behaviour:
- Price has remained above the 20-day moving average, supporting short-term momentum
- More importantly, price has recently closed above the 200-day moving average (09 April 2026)
This is a critical development.
However, from our experience, a single break is not enough.
We are monitoring whether price can hold above the 200-day moving average, as this level often acts as a dynamic support/resistance zone.
3. Key Confirmation Level
The next important step in our process is confirmation through structure:
- 1.1735 (08 April high) remains a key resistance level
A sustained move above this level would:
- Confirm short-term strength
- Validate the higher low structure
- Increase the probability of continuation
Until then, we remain in a confirmation phase, not a predictive one.
4. Fibonacci Framework & Upside Zones
Using the recent swing structure, we identify key areas of interest:
- 1.1800 → aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci level
- 1.1920 → aligned with the 0.786 Fibonacci level
These levels are not targets, but reference zones where price may react, pause, or reassess direction.
5. Intermarket Perspective
From a broader macro perspective:
- Our view on the US Dollar Index suggests potential softness
- As EURUSD is inversely correlated to the dollar, this could act as a supportive factor for upside continuation
However, intermarket signals must align with price action—structure always comes first.
6. Our Approach
We do not anticipate outcomes.
We observe, wait for confirmation, and manage risk accordingly.
If the structure continues to hold:
- Higher lows remain intact
- Price sustains above key moving averages
- Resistance levels are broken with confirmation
Then the market may favour a continuation phase.
If not, we reassess.
Conclusion
EURUSD is currently transitioning from a corrective phase into a potential early-stage uptrend.
The key for us is not prediction, but alignment:
- Momentum
- Structure
- Confirmation
- Intermarket context
Only when these elements come together do we consider the environment constructive.
Disclaimer
This content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. It reflects a general market view and not a personal recommendation. Trading involves risk, and you may lose more than your initial investment.
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