Date: April 3, 2026

Asset: US Global Jets ETF (JETS)

Current Price: $24.93

Overview

The current macroeconomic environment is defined by divergence. While WTI Crude has surged to $112.04 following geopolitical tensions, creating an obvious headwind for the aviation sector, We are maintaining our long-standing position in the JETS ETF. This post outlines the technical and fundamental rationale behind this decision, alongside the significant risks currently in play.

The Macro Thesis: Yields vs. Energy

Usually, an oil spike of this magnitude triggers a sell-off in airlines. However, the U.S. 2Y Yield has softened to 3.79%, suggesting the bond market anticipates a “Fed Pause” to counteract the growth shock.

• The Opportunity: If yields continue to fall, the discount rate for equities improves, potentially offsetting high fuel costs.
• The Risk: If Oil remains above $110 for a sustained period, the “inflation-first” narrative may return, forcing yields back up and creating a “double-squeeze” on airline margins.

Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows JETS testing a critical structural floor:

1. Support Level: The price is currently reacting to the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($24.19) and a long-term ascending trendline.
2. Momentum: The SMI Oscillator is in oversold territory. While this suggests a potential for mean reversion, it is not a guarantee of a price floor.

Risk Management & Invalidation

Every trade has a “kill switch.” For this thesis, the risk is a breakdown of technical structure.

• Downside Target: If JETS closes below $23.50 on a daily basis, the bullish trendline is officially broken, and the fundamental pressure from $112 Oil will likely lead to further devaluation.
• Upside Target: I am monitoring the $31.00 level (0.786 Fib) as an area of potential profit-taking, should a relief rally occur.

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⚠️ IMPORTANT RISK WARNING

Capital at Risk. Trading ETFs and navigating macro volatility involves a high risk of loss. The value of investments can go down as well as up.

Disclaimer: This post is a personal record of our trading strategy and is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or an invitation to invest. We are sharing our own perspective as a market participant; your financial situation and risk tolerance are unique. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.